Heat this summer, with record average temperatures in California in both August and September, has only exacerbated the dry conditions. San Francisco saw only one one-hundredth of an inch of precipitation in October, the month when the first rains of the season usually arrive. While the state inevitably turns dry in the fall after its long, mostly rain-free summers, aridity hasn’t been nearly as widespread in almost two years, shortly after the last major drought. Some small water agencies with less robust reserves have already begun to put water restrictions in place.Ĭurrently, two-thirds of California is considered to be in at least some degree of drought, according to the U.S. Lake Shasta, the state’s largest reservoir, is at 77% of its normal level for the week, and Lake Oroville, the second largest, is at 69%. Many of California’s reservoirs are a bit emptier than typical this time of year, though it usually takes two years of below-normal precipitation before water managers start to worry. All but the southern part of the state now stands a possibility of back-to-back dry years and, with that, an elevated fire risk as well as tighter water supplies. Much of Northern California saw only half as much rain as usual during the winter months, when the bulk of the state’s precipitation occurs. Warm, rainless weather ahead would follow scant precipitation last winter. “Having the odds tip toward a warm, dry winter suggest the potential for deepening drought conditions.” John Blanchard “We’re certainly in a drought-risk posture statewide at the moment,” said Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist and professor of earth system science at Stanford University. In the long-term, climate models project less-than-average precipitation through most of winter, because of a La Niña weather pattern, raising concern about continued dryness and even the beginning of a prolonged drought across much of California. And the prospect of dangerous, seasonal winds generally lingers into December. The state’s hills and valleys remain tinder-dry. While the unavoidable turn toward winter, starting Friday, is sure to offer at least some relief from this year’s unrelenting fire season, forecasters warn that wildfire risk is likely to persist for another month - possibly much longer. Jessica Christian / The Chronicle Show More Show LessĬalifornia is expecting its first rain of the season this weekend, a major shift in weather that’s likely to bring scattered showers and chilly breezes to the Bay Area, and freezing temperatures and snow to the Sierra. The culprit could be a La Niña weather pattern, though that’s not definite at this point. Though some rain is predicted starting Friday, drought conditions are already hitting much of California, and the possibility of a prolonged drought is alarming some forecasters. Jessica Christian / The Chronicle Show More Show Less 5 of5Ī home sits near a dry grassy hill in El Cerrito in September. Drought conditions could worsen this winter. Carlos Avila Gonzalez / The Chronicle Show More Show Less 4 of5ĭry hills sit above homes and businesses in El Cerrito, Heat and strong dry winds raised wildfire risks across the Bay Area in September. A good portion of the state is now suffering drought conditions that could worsen this winter. Visitors watch the sunset as they took advantage of the cooler temperatures at Crissy Field in San Francisco as hot weather in September toppled records all over the Bay Area. Paul Chinn / The Chronicle Show More Show Less 3 of5 Noah Berger / Special to The Chronicle Show More Show Less 2 of5Ĭyclists ride on Corte Madera Avenue in Mill Valley last month as smoke from the Glass Fire in Napa and Sonoma counties blanketed the region. Rains starting Friday could help tamp down the fire season. An air tanker drops retardant while battling the Glass Fire in unincorporated Napa County last month.
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